The 2021 pallet squeeze, in hindsight
For about eight months, the most boring object in global trade became impossible to buy. It is worth remembering accurately, because almost every lesson people took from it was the wrong one.
November 12, 2024 · Coordination desk · 9 min read · History
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- Duration
- ≈8 months
- Real cause
- Cores stopped circulating
- Wrong lesson
- Stockpile
- Right lesson
- Relationships & return rates
Nothing was destroyed. The pallets all still existed. They had simply stopped moving.
What actually happened
Three things coincided. Consumer demand for goods surged while demand for services collapsed, so an unusual volume of physical product moved. Lumber prices spiked violently, making new pallets expensive and pushing everybody toward recycled. And — the part most accounts miss — pallets stopped completing their circuits. Units went out to warehouses, retailers and homes and did not come back on the usual schedule, because every link in the chain was congested and nobody had spare capacity to handle empties.
The result was not a shortage of wood. It was a shortage of circulating pallets. The installed base was intact and sitting still, in yards, at the backs of stores, in container terminals and in driveways.
Why stockpiling made it worse
The rational individual response — buy more and hold more — was collectively catastrophic. Every operation that doubled its buffer took pallets out of circulation, which tightened supply further, which prompted more buffering. A classic reinforcing loop, and it is why the squeeze lasted as long as it did after the initial demand surge had cooled.
We lived this from the supply side. Our core intake fell while order volumes rose, which is exactly the decoupling that makes a recycling yard's life impossible. We rationed to standing-order accounts and told spot buyers the honest lead time, which was sometimes six weeks. We lost business for that. We also still have every account that mattered.
A pallet shortage is almost never a shortage of pallets. It is a shortage of pallets that are moving.
The wrong lessons
“Hold a bigger buffer”
Three years on, we still find operations holding six weeks of cover because of 2021, paying more in storage than the pallets are worth, and holding the inventory that would have helped the next squeeze if it were circulating.
“Switch to plastic”
Plastic was also constrained, more expensive, and worse on a 60% return rate. Several operations that switched in 2021 switched back in 2023.
“Buy from more suppliers”
Spreading small volumes across five yards makes you everybody's least important customer. In an allocation market, that is the opposite of what you want.
The lessons that held
- Be somebody's standing-order account. When stock is allocated rather than sold, allocation goes to relationships and written commitments. It is the only hedge that worked.
- Sell your cores to the yard that supplies you. Two-way accounts got served first, everywhere, because they were solving the supply problem rather than only consuming it.
- Know your return rate. Operations that knew theirs could predict their own exposure. Operations that did not were surprised by their own pallet flow.
- Be flexible on grade. Accounts that could run B when A was gone kept shipping. Accounts with a rigid A-grade specification and no engineering reason for it stopped.
- Circulate rather than hoard. Counter-intuitive during a squeeze, correct in aggregate, and genuinely cheaper in normal times.
Reference tables
The numbers referred to above, in full, so you do not have to take a sentence's word for them.
Footprints
| Footprint | Inches | Millimetres | Construction | Where it lives | Our stock | Per 53' van |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMA 48×40 | 48" × 40" | 1219 × 1016 | Stringer & block | Grocery, general distribution, retail | Deep | 480–560 |
| 48×48 | 48" × 48" | 1219 × 1219 | Stringer | Drums, reels, wire, square loads | Good | 392–420 |
| 48×45 | 48" × 45" | 1219 × 1143 | Stringer | Automotive, tyre | Good | 420–450 |
| 48×42 | 48" × 42" | 1219 × 1067 | Stringer | Telecom, paint, coatings | Good | 440–480 |
| 42×42 | 42" × 42" | 1067 × 1067 | Stringer | Chemicals, drums, paint | Good | 480–520 |
| 40×48 | 40" × 48" | 1016 × 1219 | Stringer | Beverage, rotated GMA | Good | 480–560 |
| 40×40 | 40" × 40" | 1016 × 1016 | Stringer | Dairy, beverage, bakery | Good | 520–580 |
| 36×36 | 36" × 36" | 914 × 914 | Stringer | Compact, display, light goods | Good | 640–700 |
| 32×30 | 32" × 30" | 813 × 762 | Stringer | Retail display, in-store | Limited | 900+ |
| 30×30 | 30" × 30" | 762 × 762 | Stringer | Light goods, display | Limited | 960+ |
| 48×20 half | 48" × 20" | 1219 × 508 | Stringer | Retail half pallet, promotions | Limited | 1,000+ |
| EPAL 1 | 47.24" × 31.50" | 1200 × 800 | Block, 9 blocks | European trade, retail | To order | 540–600 |
| EPAL 2 / ISO | 47.24" × 39.37" | 1200 × 1000 | Block | Europe, Asia, best container fit | To order | 480–520 |
| Asia square | 43.30" × 43.30" | 1100 × 1100 | Block | Japan, east Asia | To order | 460–500 |
| AU square | 44.88" × 44.88" | 1140 × 1140 | Block | Australia, chemical CP series | To order | 440–480 |
Trailer counts are for stacked, unstrapped loads of sound recycled stock and vary with repair thickness. We confirm the actual count on the bill of lading rather than estimating it. Anything not on this list we cut from reclaim — see custom milling.
Grades
| Grade A | Grade B | #1 premium | #2 economy | Custom cut | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original boards | All | Some replaced | All | Several replaced | Mixed |
| Companion boards | None | Permitted | None | Permitted | Permitted |
| Stringer plugs | None | Permitted | None | Permitted | Permitted |
| Metal plates | None | Permitted, disclosed | None | Permitted | Permitted |
| Squareness | Within ¼" | Within ½" | Within ¼" | Within ½" | Within ½" |
| Colour uniformity | High | Mixed | High | Mixed | Mixed, fresh saw ends |
| Protruding fasteners | Zero | Zero | Zero | Zero | Zero |
| Moisture ceiling | 19% (15% on request) | 19% | 19% (15% on request) | 19% | 19% |
| Typical service | Retail-facing, export | Internal, bulk | Automation, racking | One-way, yard storage | Odd footprints |
| Relative price | Highest recycled | −18 to −30% | High | Lowest | ≈⅓ of a new build |
| Remaining life | Longest | Shorter — already repaired once | Longest | Shortest | Varies |
Grade A and #1 overlap: we use #1 for units that needed no repair at all and A for units that are cosmetically uniform. Where a customer holds their own written standard, that document governs and supersedes these names.
Load ratings and deflection
| Construction | Static | Dynamic | Racked (unsupported) | Unit weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recycled GMA 48×40 stringer, sound | 4,600 lb | 2,800 lb | 1,500 lb | 33–45 lb |
| Recycled 48×40 block, sound | 5,200 lb | 3,000 lb | 1,900 lb | 40–55 lb |
| Recycled 48×40 stringer, repaired (B) | 4,400 lb | 2,650 lb | 1,400 lb | 35–48 lb |
| New southern yellow pine, 5 top boards | 4,200 lb | 2,500 lb | 1,400 lb | 33–38 lb |
| New mixed hardwood block, 7 top boards | 6,000 lb | 3,500 lb | 2,400 lb | 48–58 lb |
| Heavy-duty new build, doubled stringers | 9,000 lb | 5,000 lb | 3,800 lb | 62–78 lb |
| Skid (no bottom deck) | 3,800 lb | 2,200 lb | Not for racking | 24–32 lb |
Representative planning figures for sound stock, not engineering certifications. Racked ratings assume the load spans two rails with nothing under the middle. Derate a further 20–30% for dwell times beyond a few weeks, because wood creeps under sustained load.
- Design ceiling: deflection of span ÷ 100 — about 0.4 inches across a 40-inch unsupported span.
- Orientation: rack a stringer pallet across the wrong axis and the deck boards carry the span instead of the stringers. Capacity can halve.
- Creep: wood deflects progressively under sustained load. A unit measured inside tolerance on day one can exceed it after six months in a rack.
- Stiffness, not strength, is the limit. Mixed hardwood outperforms southern yellow pine in racking by more than their strength figures suggest, because it is substantially stiffer.
- Drive-in racking gives a long unsupported span with no support at the leading edge. Derate hard, use block construction, consider full-perimeter bottom boards.
Moisture and dew point
| Moisture content | What happens | Typical source | Freight weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6–12% | Indoor equilibrium. No mould risk. Dimensionally stable. | Kiln dried, stored inside | Lightest |
| 12–19% | Safe working range — our standard ceiling. | Covered dry stack | Normal |
| 19–25% | Mould within days to weeks in warm conditions. | Rain-exposed stacks, green lumber | +5–10% |
| 25–40% | Mould rapid, blue stain likely. | Pallets left in the open through a wet week | +10–20% |
| Above 40% | Saturated. You are paying freight on water. | Standing water, flooded yard | +20%+ |
Mould needs free water. Below roughly 19% the water in wood is chemically bound in the cell walls and spores cannot germinate; above it, they can. Heat treatment kills insects and confers no moisture guarantee; kiln drying reduces moisture and is not a phytosanitary treatment. They are separate claims and conflating them causes both mould claims and border holds.
| Air temperature | Relative humidity | Equilibrium moisture content | Dew point — a pallet colder than this will sweat |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 °F | 30% | ≈6% | ≈36 °F |
| 68 °F | 40% | ≈7.7% | ≈43 °F |
| 68 °F | 55% | ≈10.2% | ≈51 °F |
| 68 °F | 70% | ≈13.1% | ≈58 °F |
| 68 °F | 85% | ≈18.5% | ≈64 °F |
| 55 °F | 60% | ≈11.3% | ≈41 °F |
| 75 °F | 65% | ≈12.4% | ≈62 °F |
Approximate, for planning. Two separate lessons: wood will eventually equilibrate to whatever air it sits in, and any pallet colder than the dew point of your building's air will condense water on itself and then on your cartons. Acclimatise cold stock indoors for four to twelve hours before loading.
Fasteners
| Fastener | How it holds | Relative withdrawal | Correct for | Wrong for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ring (annular) shank | Rings bite into the fibre; withdrawal must tear wood | 1.8–2.2 | Deck boards, repairs, anywhere a fork strikes | — |
| Helical (screw) shank | Threads itself into the fibre as it drives | 1.7–2.1 | Stringers, blocks, hardwood | — |
| Smooth shank | Friction only; wood shrinks away from it | 1.0 (baseline) | Nothing in a pallet | Every pallet joint |
| Staples | Two thin legs, wide crown, large bearing area | 0.5–0.8 | Collar panels, crate sheathing, lids | Deck and stringer joints |
| Galvanised (any shank) | As above, corrosion resistant | As above | Outdoor and wash-down service | — |
Doubling withdrawal resistance roughly doubles the number of trips a unit survives, for a fastener cost measured in cents. We use ring-shank and helical only, and every unit that has been apart is fully re-nailed. The MIBANT bend-angle test is the industry's rough proxy for nail ductility: too brittle and it snaps on impact, too soft and the joint loosens.
Conversions
| Inches | mm | Millimetres | Inches | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20" | 508 | 600 mm | 23.62" | 1 board foot = 144 in³ |
| 24" | 610 | 800 mm | 31.50" | 1 cu yd = 27 cu ft |
| 30" | 762 | 1,000 mm | 39.37" | 1 short ton = 2,000 lb |
| 32" | 813 | 1,100 mm | 43.30" | 1 kg = 2.205 lb |
| 36" | 914 | 1,140 mm | 44.88" | 1" = 25.4 mm exactly |
| 40" | 1,016 | 1,200 mm | 47.24" | 56 °C = 132.8 °F |
| 42" | 1,067 | 1,219 mm | 48.00" | 19% MC = mould threshold |
| 44" | 1,118 | 1,016 mm | 40.00" | 32 bf ≈ one GMA unit |
| 45" | 1,143 | 914 mm | 36.00" | L/100 = deflection ceiling |
| 48" | 1,219 | 762 mm | 30.00" | ≈500 units per 53' van |
Decision trees
Recycled, new, or cut down?
- Does a standard footprint fit your carton pattern with no overhang? If yes → recycled.
- If no: does an oversized footprint exist in reclaim that can be sawn to your size? If yes → cut down, at roughly a third of a new build.
- Does anything automated read the pallet's geometry, or do you need ±⅛"? If yes → new build.
- Is the racked load above about 2,500 lb? If yes → new build, mixed hardwood, block construction.
- Is a documented chain of custody for the wood itself part of an audit? If yes → new build.
- Otherwise → recycled, at the lowest grade that survives the journey.
Buy, own a fleet, or rent from a pool?
- Measure your return rate first. Everything below depends on it and nothing else matters as much.
- Below 50% return → your pallet is packaging. Buy recycled one-way and price it as consumable.
- 50–85% return → the messy middle. Buy recycled on a managed programme, with collection on the same movements.
- Above 85% return, with controlled geography → own a fleet and use toll repair to keep your asset numbers.
- Mandated by a retailer's pool, or shipping to hundreds of points needing identical quality → pool rental, and budget for loss charges.
- Wash-down hygiene is a process requirement → plastic, and we will point you to somebody who sells it.
Stringer or block?
- Does it go into racking where you cannot guarantee orientation? Block.
- Do powered jacks enter from the 48" side? Block.
- Automated storage and retrieval? Block, or new.
- Heavy load sitting for months? Block, mixed hardwood.
- European or ISO-metric footprint? Block by specification, not preference.
- Otherwise → stringer: lighter, cheaper, deeper in recycled stock and easier to repair.
Repair or replace?
- Crack crossing a notch, or more than a third of a stringer's depth? Plug, or condemn.
- Three or more stringer repairs already present? Condemn — that is a pallet held together by optimism.
- Four or more deck boards gone on a low-value footprint? Harvest the boards.
- Above 24% moisture? Dry stack first, then decide.
- Contaminated with oil, chemicals or paint? Out of every reuse stream, permanently.
- Otherwise → repair and re-nail fully, at roughly a third of replacement cost.